Clinical Trial Probability of Success Analyses

Evidence-based Bayesian predictions for clinical trial outcomes using academic-grade methodology with peer-reviewed priors from Nature Biotechnology and Harvard Data Science Review

Phase 3 • High Data Volume
55.8%

NCT04924972: Pembrolizumab in NSCLC

Merck's Phase 3 pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy trial in advanced non-small cell lung cancer with 1,357 patient enrollment and progression-free survival endpoint.

Sponsor: Merck Sharp & Dohme
Credible Interval: 43.7% - 67.8%
Data Quality: High (6.2% uncertainty)
Probability of Success 55.8%
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Breakthrough • AI Surprising
73.2%

NCT03915678: CAR-T Cell Therapy in B-ALL

Novartis CAR-T cell therapy in pediatric B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia with breakthrough therapy designation. AI identified 23% higher success rate than traditional models.

Sponsor: Novartis Pharmaceuticals
Credible Interval: 65.4% - 81.0%
AI Enhancement: +13.5% vs traditional
Probability of Success 73.2%
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Academic Foundation & Methodology

Evidence-Based Priors

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling with therapeutic area-specific priors derived from meta-analyses of thousands of clinical trials published in Nature Biotechnology and Biostatistics.

Hay et al. (2014), Wong et al. (2018)

AI Pattern Recognition

Cross-domain pattern recognition identifies opportunities across therapeutic areas that require deep domain expertise, creating insights human analysts cannot achieve.

Proprietary algorithms with continuous learning

Uncertainty Quantification

Credible intervals, model uncertainty, and data quality scores provide calibrated probability estimates with quantified confidence for strategic decision-making.

Bartoš et al. (2023) framework

More Analyses Coming Soon

Phase 2 • Alzheimer's TBD

Aducanumab Follow-up Studies

Next-generation anti-amyloid therapies with optimized dosing

Phase 3 • Diabetes TBD

GLP-1 Combination Therapies

Novel combination approaches for obesity and diabetes

Phase 1 • Gene Therapy TBD

In Vivo Gene Editing

CRISPR-based therapies for genetic disorders

Get Probability of Success Analysis for Your Trials

Access evidence-based Bayesian analysis for any clinical trial with academic-grade rigor and peer-reviewed methodology used by leading biopharma companies.