Probability of Success Analysis

Advanced Bayesian statistical modeling for clinical trial success prediction

🔒 Premium Feature - Professional Tier Required

Important Legal Disclaimer

All Probability of Success (PoS) estimates are AI-generated probabilistic models for research purposes only. These analyses are not medical advice, investment recommendations, regulatory guidance, or legal counsel. Clinical trial outcomes involve complex factors beyond these statistical models. Users must consult qualified professionals before making clinical, regulatory, investment, or business decisions. PatAP Intelligence disclaims all liability for outcomes, losses, or damages from reliance on these probabilistic estimates.

🔍 Clinical Trial Analysis

🔒 Premium Feature Access Required

Interactive PoS analysis is available to Professional tier subscribers and admin users. View our demonstration analysis below or upgrade for full access.

📊 Demonstration Analysis Examples

NCT02142738 - KEYNOTE-024 NSCLC

Phase 3 | PD-L1+ Lung Cancer

PoS: 72.4% Click to view analysis
NCT02220894 - KEYNOTE-042 NSCLC

Phase 3 | PD-L1≥1% Lung Cancer

PoS: 68.3% Click to view analysis
NCT02477800 - EMERGE Alzheimer's

Phase 3 | Aducanumab vs Placebo

PoS: 41.7% Click to view analysis

📊 Model Performance

84.7%
ROC AUC
0.156
Brier Score
92.3%
CI Coverage
15,847
Trials Analyzed

Probability of Success Analysis

67.2%
Probability of Success
Confidence: 85% | 95% CI: 52.1% - 78.4%

🎯 Trial Details

Phase: II

Indication: Solid tumors

Sample Size: 150

Sponsor: Bristol Myers Squibb

⚠️ Risk Factors

Neurology Phase II trials have historically low success rates
Extended timeline increases competitive risks

🧠 Bayesian Methodology

Our PoS calculations use hierarchical Bayesian modeling with evidence-based priors from published meta-analyses.

ClinicalTrials.gov
Real-time trial metadata and outcomes
Published Meta-Analyses
DiMasi et al., Hay et al. success rate priors
Therapeutic Area Priors
Phase-specific historical success rates
Sponsor Performance
Company-specific success adjustments

💼 PoS Analysis Tiers

Choose the tier that matches your R&D decision-making needs

Professional

$149/month
  • Single trial PoS analysis
  • Bayesian confidence intervals
  • Risk factor identification
  • Historical calibration metrics
  • Real-time ClinicalTrials.gov data

Enterprise

$799/month
  • Batch analysis (100+ trials)
  • Portfolio risk assessment
  • PoS trend analysis
  • Custom therapeutic area models
  • API access for integration
  • Dedicated success manager